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News: 2007 AIDS Epidemic Update: Global HIV prevalence has levelled off
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Nov 22nd, 2007 - 08:01:32 |
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As we prepare for World AIDS Day!
Rassel
News: 2007 AIDS Epidemic Update: Global HIV prevalence
has levelled off
UNAIDS
21 November 2007
****************
[Mods note: The 2007 AIDS Epidemic Update has just
been released, and
can be downloaded from:
http://data.unaids.org/pub/EPISlides/2007/2007_epiupdate_en.pdf
Please read the UNAIDS press release below. Be welcome
to comment,
thanks.]
****************
"GLOBAL HIV PREVALENCE HAS LEVELLED OFF; AIDS IS AMONG
THE LEADING
CAUSES OF DEATH GLOBALLY AND REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF DEATH IN AFRICA"
Improvements in surveillance increase understanding of
the epidemic,
resulting in substantial revisions to estimates
GENEVA: New data show global HIV prevalence-the
percentage of people
living with HIV-has levelled off and that the number
of new infections
has fallen, in part as a result of the impact of HIV
programmes.
However, in 2007 33.2 million [30.6 - 36.1 million]
people were
estimated to be living with HIV, 2.5 million [1.8 -
4.1 million] people became
newly infected and 2.1 million [1.9 - 2.4 million]
people died of
AIDS.
There were an estimated 1.7 million [1.4 - 2.4
million] new HIV
infections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2007-a
significant reduction since 2001.
However, the region remains most severely affected.
An estimated 22.5
million [20.9 - 24.3 million] people living with HIV,
or 68% of the
global total, are in sub-Saharan Africa. Eight
countries in this region now
account for almost one-third of all new HIV
infections and AIDS deaths
globally.
Since 2001, when the United Nations Declaration of
Commitment on
HIV/AIDS was signed, the number of people living with
HIV in Eastern Europe
and Central Asia has increased by more than 150% from
630 000 [490 000 -
1.1 million] to 1.6 million [1.2 - 2.1 million] in
2007. In Asia, the
estimated number of people living with HIV in Viet
Nam has more than
doubled between 2000 and 2005 and Indonesia has the
fastest growing
epidemic.
These findings were released today by the Joint United
Nations
Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health
Organization (WHO) in the
report 2007 AIDS Epidemic Update.
Continuing improvements to latest estimates
The new report reflects improved and expanded
epidemiological data and
analyses that present a better understanding of the
global epidemic.
These new data and advances in methodology have
resulted in substantial
revisions from previous estimates.
While the global prevalence of HIV infection-the
percentage of people
infected with HIV- has levelled off, the total number
of people living
with HIV is increasing because of ongoing acquisition
of HIV infection,
combined with longer survival times, in a
continuously growing general
population.
Global HIV incidence-the number of new HIV infections
per year-is now
estimated to have peaked in the late 1990s at over 3
million [2.4 - 5.1
million] new infections per year, and is estimated in
2007 to be 2.5
million [1.8 - 4.1 million] new infections, an
average of more than 6 800
new infections each day. This reflects natural trends
in the epidemic,
as well as the result of HIV prevention efforts.
The number of people dying from AIDS-related illnesses
has declined in
the last two years, due in part to the life
prolonging effects of
antiretroviral therapy. AIDS is among the leading
causes of death globally
and remains the primary cause of death in Africa.
"These improved data present us with a clearer picture
of the AIDS
epidemic, one that reveals both challenges and
opportunities," said UNAIDS
Executive Director Dr Peter Piot.
"Unquestionably, we are beginning to see a return on
investment-new HIV
infections and mortality are declining and the
prevalence of HIV
levelling. But with more than 6 800 new infections
and over 5 700 deaths
each day due to AIDS we must expand our efforts in
order to significantly
reduce the impact of AIDS worldwide."
Revision of estimates
UNAIDS, WHO and the Reference Group on Estimates,
Modelling and
Projections have recently undertaken the most
comprehensive review of their
methodologies and monitoring systems since 2001. The
epidemic estimates
presented in this year's report reflect improvements
in country data
collection and analysis, as well as a better
understanding of the natural
history and distribution of HIV infection. This
information is vital in
helping countries understand their epidemics and
respond to them more
effectively.
UNAIDS and WHO are now working with better information
from many more
countries. In the past few years a number of
countries, most notably in
sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, have expanded and
improved their HIV
surveillance systems, conducting new, more accurate
studies that provide
more precise information about HIV prevalence than
earlier studies. In
addition, 30 countries mostly in Africa have
conducted national
representative population-based household surveys.
These have also informed
adjustments for other countries with similar
epidemics that have not
conducted these surveys. New assumptions have also
been made as a result of a
better understanding of the natural history of
untreated HIV infection.
The current estimate of 33.2 million [30.6 - 36.1
million] people
living with HIV replaces the 2006 estimate of 39.5
million [24.5 - 47.1
million]. Applying the improved methodology
retrospectively to the 2006
data, the 2007 report revises that figure, now
estimating that in 2006
there were 32.7 million [30.2 - 35.3 million] people
living with HIV. The
single biggest reason for the reduction in global HIV
prevalence
figures in the past year was the recent revision of
estimates in India after
an intensive reassessment of the epidemic in that
country.
The revised estimates for India, combined with
important revisions of
estimates in five sub- Saharan African countries
(Angola, Kenya,
Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe) account for 70% of
the reduction in HIV
prevalence as compared to 2006 estimates.
"Reliable public health data are the essential
foundation for an
effective response to HIV/AIDS", said WHO's HIV/AIDS
Director Dr Kevin De
Cock. "While these new estimates are of better
quality than those of the
past, we need to continue investing more in all
countries and all
aspects of strategic information relating to health."
"The data for measuring the HIV epidemic used by
UNAIDS/WHO has
considerably expanded and improved in recent years,"
said Ron Brookmeyer,
Professor of Biostatistics and Chair of the Master of
Public Health
Program, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health. "Nevertheless,
there is a need to further improve the
representativeness of the
underlying data. There is a need to expand disease
surveillance systems to
better track the sub-epidemics in risk populations
within each county."
"More accurate estimates and trends will ultimately
lead to
improvements in the design and evaluation of
prevention programmes," added
Professor Brookmeyer, who was also the Chair of the
Independent Review Panel
at the recent International Consultation on
epidemiological estimates
convened by UNAIDS and WHO.
UNAIDS and WHO will continue to update their
methodology as new data
becomes available from research studies and
surveillance data from
countries.
Progress seen but more needs to be done HIV prevalence
among young
pregnant women (15 - 24) attending antenatal clinics
has declined since
2000/2001 in 11 of the15 most-affected countries.
Preliminary data also
show favourable changes in risk behaviour among young
people in a number
of countries, (Botswana, Cameroon, Chad, Haiti,
Kenya, Malawi, Togo,
Zambia, and Zimbabwe).
These trends suggest that prevention efforts are
having an impact in
several of the most affected countries.
In sub-Saharan Africa, continued treatment scale-up
and HIV prevention
efforts are also bringing results in some countries,
but mortality from
AIDS remains high in Africa due to the extensive
unmet treatment need.
Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya and Zimbabwe, among others, have
all seen
downward trends in their national prevalence. Beyond
sub-Saharan Africa,
declines in new HIV infections have also occurred in
South and South-East
Asia, notably in Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand.
There is a need to adapt and revive HIV prevention
efforts as some
countries are seeing a reversal of declining trends.
Burundi's declining
trend from the late 1990's did not continue beyond
2005 and HIV
prevalence started to increase again at most
surveillance sites.
Despite achievements in reversing the epidemic in
Thailand, HIV
prevalence is rising among men who have sex with men
and has remained high
among injecting drug users over the past 15 years,
ranging between 30% to
50%.
UNAIDS and WHO officials point out that the new
estimates do not change
the need for immediate action and increased funding
to scale up
towards universal access to HIV prevention,
treatment, care and support
services.
For more information please contact:
Sophie Barton-Knott
UNAIDS
Geneva
Email: bartonknotts (at) unaids.org
For more information on 2007 AIDS epidemic update,
please go to:
http://www.unaids.org/en/HIV_data/2007EpiUpdate/default.asp
To download the 2007 AIDS epidemic update, go to:
http://data.unaids.org/pub/EPISlides/2007/2007_epiupdate_en.pdf
___________________________________________________________
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