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The Drum Beat: 2006 Prediction Quiz
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Jan 8th, 2006 - 01:35:15 |
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Season's greetings from Ha Noi!
FYI -
~ Romi
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To: The Drum Beat network
From: Warren Feek - Executive Director - The Communication Initiative
www.comminit.com
THE 2006 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION QUIZ!
New year's best wishes to everyone. The first "normal" Drum Beat for 2006 will appear as "advertised" on January 23 2006. However we normally do a beginning of the year "thing" and the offering for 2006 - The International Development Prediction Quiz! - can be found below. Please note that I am totally responsible for this prediction quiz and it does not reflect in any way the views and opinions of the Partner organisations (or other CI staff for that matter!) individually or collectively.
You might even want to print this email and then have your colleagues, friends and family get out a combination of their best judgment, their crystal ball and their pencils to take this quiz. Save the answers!
Then, in December 2006, you can see who was the most correct. If you wish, please let us know your predictions. We would love to know them!! Reply to this note or
email wfeek (at) comminit.com
So, here we go...
THE 2006 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION QUIZ! - 20 questions!
1. By December 2006 the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) will be:
[a] Well on track to being achieved and we will all be very happy.
[b] Being substantially redrafted so that they are achievable and we can all feel good in 2015.
[c] Slipping off the planning radar of International Development as the more complex analysis that underpins the MDGs (e.g.: the core factors commonly shared by all MDGs) gains greater prominence.
[d] Still in place and still being pursued with the same strategy as 2005.
[e] Other - please state:
2. In 2006 the major international development news story most reported across local, national and international media will be:
[a] Another natural disaster - the 2006 version of the 2005 Tsunami story.
[b] Pressure on the major trading blocs (e.g.: EU, NAFTA) to abandon their combination of trade protection and subsidies that so detrimentally affect
the [so called] developing country economies.
[c] A major "scandal" in how international development funds are spent.
[d] Avian Influenza.
[e] Other - please state:
3. Come the New Year's Eve "celebrations" on December 31, 2006, progress on
Debt Reduction will be in this position:
[a] The 50 economically poorest countries in the world will have had at least 80% of their accumulated debt cancelled and written off.
[b] There will be some progress with limited debt reduction and cancellation on some measures but essentially most countries will still be very indebted.
[c] No progress on debt reduction will have been made but the debate will be even more intensive and heated than at present .
[d] An alternative "solution" will be emerging such as the country equivalent of the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy provision for private sector companies in the USA.
[e] Other - please state:
4. As you consume whatever drink you take to welcome in 2007 in 12 months time, you will recall the "WSIS (World Summit on the Information Society) in Tunis and Geneva", from an international development perspective, as having:
[a] Sparked tremendous growth in the effective use of information technologies to address major development issues.
[b] Been a major missed opportunity for information and communication technologies (ICTs) and Development - not worth the time and money and maybe even a distraction from the real business.
[c] Helped a little but not much - getting people together always has some value.
[d] Been a great line in a popular song you can not quite remember - "WSIS in Tunis"? (sorry - could not resist).
[e] Other - please state:
5. Through the 2006 calendar year there will be how many major music events (think Live 8 and other smaller events in 2005) on international development themes?
[a] None - they have had their day and are no longer relevant or helpful.
[b] Two or three - some musicians somewhere will have a cause that they wish to support but generally the enthusiasm and interest in these types of events is waning.
[c] Four to six - the momentum will be kept up.
[d] Loads of them - pop and rock stars love them, people love them, they really help.
[e] Other - please state:
6. According to UNAIDS, on World AIDS Day 2005 the number of people living with HIV was 40.3 million. When World AIDS Day rolls around on December 1 2006, what number do you predict will be reported for people living with HIV?
a] above 45 million
[b] 40 to 45 million
[c] 37 to 40 million
[d] 33 to 37 million
[e] Other - please state:
7. There is some dispute about the numbers of people globally who live on less then 1 USD per day. In an act of new year charity, let's side step those debates and just accept the World Bank figure of 1.3 billion people (even though some say that is a low figure based on bad measures etc...). As a result of the combined efforts and investments of governments, the UN system, local people and their organisations, national and international aid and development organisations and the Bank itself, The World Bank will be able to report what number of people living on less then 1 USD per day at the end of 2006?
[a] Over 1.5 billion - things are getting much worse.
[b] 1.3 to 1.5 billion - getting worse.
[c] 1.3 billion - holding steady - no gain but no more pain.
[d] 1.1 to 1.3 billion - a steadily improving situation.
[e] Less than 1.1 billion - major gains indicating a set of highly successful interventions and efforts.
[f] Other - please state:
8. There always seems to be a country that becomes the "shining light" for international development across the board or on particular issues - for example in the recent past Uganda (for both HIV/AIDS and economic development), Ghana (for its leading role in structural adjustment) and Ukraine (for democratic development). Whether these and other countries continue to retain that status is of course another question. In 2006 which country do you think will be hailed as showing the way to do
development effectively?
[a] Viet Nam
[b] Senegal
[c] Mozambique
[d] Great Britain
[e] Brazil
[f] Venezuela
[g] India
[h] Other - please state:
9. In September 2005 the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD
in a report on the ODA (Overseas Development Assistance) spending of the 24
financially richest countries of the world showed that only four of those countries had met the 0.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target for such spending. The highest spenders were Norway (0.87% of its GDP on ODA); Denmark (0.85%); Sweden(0.78%); and The Netherlands (0.74%). The lowest were Italy (0.15%) and the USA (0.16%). When this committee next reports at the end of 2006, how many countries do you predict will have budgeted to meet the 0.7% target in their 2007/2008 financial years?
[a] Two - internal economic and perhaps political pressures added to a feeling of carrying an unfair burden will mean two from Denmark, Sweden and Netherlands will go below the 0.7% agreed level.
[b] Four - these four countries will keep their commitments and meet their obligations but no other country will step up to join them.
[c] Six - two other countries will step forward and join these 4 - maybe the UK and Portugal?
[d] Other - please state:
10. Planning seems to have gotten a lot tighter in international development as one version or another of the Logframe approach has penetrated all sections of our community. But will this trend continue? In 2006 will there be...
[a] Even stricter and more detailed planning requirements - they are effective
[b] About the same level of adherence as in 2005 to log frames and their ilk - we have got them right
[c] The adoption of more simple and flexible planning processes - we need to loosen the strings a little
[d] Other - please state:
11. The new technology process which will provide the greatest added value for the improved impact of international development action in 2006 will be...
[a] The Blackberry and other similar devices
[b] Internet cafes and cabines and their like
[c] SKYPE and other free VOIP processes.
[d] Wireless coverage and systems.
[e] Mobile phones
[f] Linux and other open source software.
[g] Microsoft and other proprietary software.
[h] Other - please state:
12. The World Congress for Communication for Development (Rome - October 2006) will prove to be:
[a] A big talk shop with little added value for the Development Communication field
[b] A seminal moment in Development Communication as overall directions are agreed and proven impact demonstrated
[c] Good for influencing policy makers and funders to invest more in this field but little in the way of new and exciting prgramme and policy directions
[d] Good for practitioners and people working on the ground but little effect on policy makers and funders
[e] Other - please state:
[Noting that The CI is one of the organisers of this Congress with FAO and The World Bank - but please do not let that affect your prediction!!!]
13. 2006 will be the year of VOICES, PERSPECTIVES and ANALYSIS from THE
SOUTH (so called developing countries).
[a] Agree
[b] Disagree
14. At present there are 6 countries whose Heads of State are women (this is political leaders - Prime Ministers, Presidents etc - not counting titular royalty). These are Maria do Carmo Silveira (São Tome and Principe), Helen Clark (New Zealand), Angela Merkel (Gemany), Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf (Liberia), Begum Khaleda Zia (Bangladesh) and Luisa Diogo (Mozambique) - with many apologies if I missed any country. In 2006 how many countries will have a women as Head of State?
[a] 3 - things will get worse not better as three of these lose office and men replace them.
[b] 6 - there may be some changes in these countries but a few women will get elected in other countries.
[c] 10 - there will be modest gains as women are elected in other countries.
[d] 15 - a comparatively big surge in the numbers of women as heads of state reflecting the growing engagement of women as central players in the political processes of countries.
[e] Other - please state:
...and a supplementary question on the same theme:
Kofi Annan's replacement as Secretary General upon his predicted retirement
on December 31 2006 will be:
[a] Male
[b] Female
15. As we all wind down the year in December 2006, when we think of the land ownership rights of indigenous peoples and communities, how will we describe
progress in 2006:
[a] Going backwards - indigenous peoples and communities lost more of their
land
[b] No progress at all - status quo maintained
[c] Some progress - a few significant acts of land being returned and/or reparations paid
[d] Good progress - a large number of examples can be quoted of land being returned and/or reparations being made
[e] Excellent progress - a real ground swell of momentum and action leading to a very large number of significant examples of land returned and/or reparations paid
[f] Other - please state:
***
Finally, in a more frivolous and light hearted mood - it is always dangerous to take ourselves too seriously - these highly important questions:
16. Which airline will make the most money from international development in 2006?
[a] British Airways
[b] United
[c] Singapore Air
[d] Air France
[e] Qantas
[f] Other - please state:
17. On which development issue will the most meetings be held in 2006 (and is there an underpinning correlation here to be tested)?
[a] Poverty Reduction
[b] HIV/AIDS
[c] Child Health
[d] Environment
[e] Emergencies and Conflicts
[f] Planning (yep - just planning meetings)
[g] Other - please state:
18. How much money will be spent by international development focused organisations on printed publications in 2006?
[a] Less than USD 250 million
[b] USD 500 million (approximately)
[c] USD 750 million (approx)
[d] More than USD 1 billion dollars
[e] Other - please state:
(Ouch - sorry - could not resist this admittedly vested interest question given The CI's virtual and online strategy!)
19. How many hours, in total, will everyone in international development waste following one web link to another web link and onto another web link.and so on...in 2006?
[a] Less than 200,000 hours
[b] 500,000 hours (approximately)
[c] 1,000,000 hours (approx)
[d] Over 5,000,000 hours
[e] Other - please state:
(Just to balance up Question 13!)
20. TAQ! - The Acronym Question! How many new acronyms will be "born" in international development in 2006?
[a] None - we have had enough of acronymns - plain language rules
[b] 100 (approximately) - just a few - we are all very selective in introducing new ones
[c] 500 (approx) - as a field of work we can not help ourselves - it is part of our culture
[d] 1,000 (approx) - an acronymn epidemic breaks out!
[e] Other - please state:
Thank you for participating in this inaugural (and maybe final!) International Development Prediction Quiz! Good luck as you watch events unfold over 2006 and your chances of being the winner in your office, family or friend contest are enhanced or diminished by those events. And, please do send us your answers!!!
On behalf of myself and the full CI team have a great 2006! Much power and support to you for your very important work.
Warren Feek
Executive Director
The Communication Initiative
wfeek (at) comminit.com
http://www.comminit.com
1-250-658-6372 [ph]
1-250-658-1728 [fx]
1-250-480-9770 [mobile]
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